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Calculator · Property

Would downsizing get me there sooner?

Written by Project OptionalLast reviewed

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The short answer

Usually, and by more than the equity alone would suggest. Selling frees capital once.

Living somewhere cheaper lowers what you spend every month after that, which raises what you can invest and lowers the amount you need saved at the same time.

Calculator

Enter the move

Put in the equity the move would release and what you pay for housing before and after. The result separates how much of the pull-forward comes from the check and how much comes from the lower monthly cost.

Calculator

Optional now

MAR 2047

After the move

12 yrs

JUN 2038

Pull-forward

105 months sooner

New target

$1.23M

Saved every month

$900

Target falls by

$270K

Pull-forward

105 months sooner

The lower running cost is doing more here than the equity is: about 53 of the 105 months come from spending less every month, not from the lump sum.

Run this against your real accounts

Assumes a 7% average real return (after inflation) and a 4% withdrawal rate. Moving costs, and any tax on the gain, are not included — subtract them from the equity released.

Why it moves both sides

Your Optional Number is annual spending divided by a safe withdrawal rate. At 4%, that means every $100 a month you permanently stop spending takes about $30,000 off the amount you need saved.

A move that cuts housing by $900 a month therefore lowers the target by roughly $270,000, before a single dollar of equity is counted. And the $900 is also available to invest while you are still working, so it arrives on both sides of the equation at once.

The equity is the smaller half

This is the part that surprises people, and the calculator above splits it out so you can see it on your own figures rather than take it on faith.

A $150,000 check invested at a 7% real return is doing one job. A $900 monthly saving is doing three: it raises contributions now, it lowers the target permanently, and it keeps doing both for every year between the move and the day you stop working.

Which means a lateral move can be worth more than it looks. Trading a large house for a similar-value flat with lower running costs releases no equity at all and can still pull the date forward.

The tax on the sale

Selling a main home is one of the better-treated transactions in the tax code. You may exclude up to $250,000 of gain, or $500,000 filing jointly, if you owned the home and lived in it as your main home for at least two of the five years before the sale.

The exclusion can be used repeatedly, though generally no more than once every two years. Whatever is left after it, plus moving costs, should come off the equity figure you put into the calculator, because the model takes that number at face value.

Relevant if you are also planning a breakThe IRS counts short absences, a summer holiday for instance, as periods of use toward those two years. It states that longer breaks do not, and the example it gives is a one-year sabbatical. If a break and a sale are both on your list, the order you do them in can matter.

Worked example

Case study — The Okonkwos, 51 and 53

Four-bedroom house, children moved out. Moving to a smaller place would release $150,000 after costs and cut housing from $2,400 a month to $1,500. They have $180,000 invested and contribute $1,500 a month against a $60,000 spending target.

Equity released

$150,000

Saved monthly

$900

Target before

$1.5M

Target after

$1.23M

The check is the visible part and the $900 a month is the larger one. It takes $270,000 off what they need saved and adds $900 a month to what they can invest in the meantime. Run both through the calculator above and the split between the two effects is explicit, which matters because the monthly saving is the part they could also get from a cheaper house of the same value.

How this works in a saved plan

The Scenarios Lab has a sell-the-house lever that puts the proceeds into the portfolio on a date you choose, and stacks with everything else. Pair it with the different-target lever to model the lower running costs, since that is what actually moves your Optional Number.

From the appSell-the-house in the Scenarios Lab. Set the sale amount and when it happens; the Optional Date moves as the proceeds land. Use the different-target lever alongside it for the lower housing costs.

Sources

Common questions

What if the smaller place costs the same?

Then you release no equity, and the move can still pay if the running costs are lower. The calculator will show the pull-forward coming entirely from the monthly saving.

Does renting instead count?

The arithmetic is the same: equity released, running cost changed. Whether renting is cheaper month to month depends on your market, and the model takes whatever figure you give it.

Should I use the proceeds to pay off a mortgage instead?

That lowers your monthly cost rather than raising your balance, so it shows up on the other side of this calculator. Nothing here models debt directly, so enter the result as a lower housing cost and a smaller equity release.

Why doesn’t my home count toward Optional already?

Home equity is excluded from the eligible portfolio because it does not pay for groceries. It only counts when it turns into invested capital, which is exactly what this page is about.

Keep reading

Membership

Model the move against everything else.

The Scenarios Lab stacks a house sale with the other levers, so you can see downsizing and a sabbatical together rather than one at a time.